{"id":543,"date":"2011-10-17T15:58:04","date_gmt":"2011-10-17T06:58:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/?p=543"},"modified":"2015-08-07T11:56:32","modified_gmt":"2015-08-07T02:56:32","slug":"%e3%81%93%e3%81%ae%e6%82%a3%e8%80%85%e3%81%af%e5%b0%86%e6%9d%a5%e9%9d%99%e8%84%88%e8%a1%80%e6%a0%93%e5%a1%9e%e6%a0%93%e7%97%87%e3%82%92%e7%99%ba%e7%97%87%e3%81%99%e3%82%8b%e3%81%8b%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/?p=543","title":{"rendered":"\u3053\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u306f\u5c06\u6765\u9759\u8108\u8840\u6813\u585e\u6813\u75c7\u3092\u767a\u75c7\u3059\u308b\u304b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u3010\u6587\u732e\u540d\u3011\u2028<br \/>\nJulia Hippisley-Cox.Development and validation of risk prediction algorithm (QThrombosis) to estimate future risk of venous thromboembolism: prospective cohort study.BMJ 2011;343:d4656 doi: 10.1136\/bmj.d4656\u2028\u2028<\/p>\n<p>\u3010\u3053\u306e\u6587\u732e\u3092\u9078\u3093\u3060\u80cc\u666f\u3011\u2028<br \/>\n\u5165\u9662\u3001\u3082\u3057\u304f\u306f\u5916\u6765\u8a3a\u7642\u306e\u4e2d\u3067DVT\u306a\u3069\u306e\u9759\u8108\u8840\u6813\u585e\u6813\u75c7\u3092\u7591\u3044\u3001\u5834\u5408\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u306f\u8a3a\u65ad\u306b\u81f3\u308b\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u3001DVT\u306e\u767a\u75c7\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u304c\u958b\u767a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3067\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3002\u2028\u2028<\/p>\n<p>\u3010\u8981\u7d04\u3011<br \/>\n\u2028\uff1cObjectives\uff1e\u2028<br \/>\n\u9759\u8108\u8840\u6813\u585e\u6813\u75c7\uff08\u6df1\u90e8\uff09\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u767a\u75c7\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0\u306e\u958b\u767a\u3068\u59a5\u5f53\u6027\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3002\u2028<br \/>\n\uff08\u4e0b\u80a2\u816b\u8139\u306a\u3069\u306e\u6709\u75c7\u72b6\u60a3\u8005\u304c\u8840\u6813\u585e\u6813\u75c7\u306b\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u300d\u7f79\u60a3\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u2028\u2028\uff1cDesign\uff1e<br \/>\nProspective open cohort study\u2028\u30001\u5e74\u5f8c\u30685\u5e74\u5f8c\u306e\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u8a08\u7b97\u5f0f\u3092\u5c0e\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u305f\u3081\u30b3\u30db\u30fc\u30c8\u3067Cox\u6bd4\u4f8b\u30cf\u30b6\u30fc\u30c9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u3002\u2028\u00a0 Calibration\uff08\u8f03\u6b63\uff09\u3068discrimination\uff08\u8b58\u5225\uff09\u3092\u6e2c\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001validation cohort\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u3002\u2028\u3000\u60a3\u8005\u3092Stata\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u7121\u4f5c\u70ba\u306b2\/3\u3092derivation\uff08\u89e3\u6790\u7fa4\uff09\u306b\u30011\/3\u3092validation\uff08\u691c\u8a3c\u7fa4\uff09\u306b\u5272\u308a\u4ed8\u3051\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u2028\u2028\uff1cSetting\uff1e\u2028<br \/>\nQReserch\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u4e0a\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30b0\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u3068\u30a6\u30a7\u30fc\u30eb\u30ba\u306b\u3042\u308b564\u304b\u6240\u306e\u5bb6\u5ead\u533b\uff08general practices\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u2028\u2028\uff1cParticipants\uff1e<br \/>\n25\uff5e84\u6b73\u3067\u3001\u904e\u53bb12\u30ab\u6708\u3067\u598a\u5a20\u8a18\u9332\u304c\u306a\u304f\u3001\u9759\u8108\u8840\u6813\u585e\u6813\u75c7\u306e\u65e2\u5f80\u304c\u306a\u304f\u3001\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u3067\u7d4c\u53e3\u6297\u51dd\u56fa\u85ac\u306e\u51e6\u65b9\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u60a3\u8005\u3002\u2028\u2028\uff1cOutcomes\uff1e\u2028\u3000\u30d7\u30e9\u30a4\u30de\u30ea\u30b1\u30a2\u533b\u306e\u30ab\u30eb\u30c6\u3082\u3057\u304f\u306f\u6b7b\u4ea1\u8a18\u9332\u306b\u8a18\u9332\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u9759\u8108\u8840\u6813\u585e\u6813\u75c7\uff08DVT\u3082\u3057\u304f\u306f\u80ba\u585e\u6813\uff09\u306e\u767a\u751f<\/p>\n<p>\u2028\u2028\uff1cResults\uff1e<br \/>\nDerivation cohort\uff08\u89e3\u6790\u7fa4\uff09\uff1a\u2028\u00a0<br \/>\n\u5272\u308a\u4ed8\u3051 2,598,829\u4eba\uff0dexclusion\uff1d2,314,701\u4eba\u304c\u5bfe\u8c61\u3002\u2028<br \/>\n14,746\u4ef6\/10,095,199\u4eba\u5e74\uff0814.6\/10,000\u4eba\u5e74\uff09\u767a\u751f\u3002<br \/>\nValidation cohort\uff08\u691c\u8a3c\u7fa4\uff09\uff1a\u2028<br \/>\n\u5272\u308a\u4ed8\u3051 1,354,517\u4eba\uff0dexclusion\uff1d1,240,602\u4eba\u304c\u5bfe\u8c61\u3002<br \/>\n6,913\u4ef6\/4,632,694\u4eba\u5e74\uff0814.9\/10,000\u4eba\u5e74\uff09\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u3002<br \/>\nBaseline\u306echaracteristic\u3000\u21d2\u3000Table1\u53c2\u7167<br \/>\n\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u72ec\u7acb\u4e88\u6e2c\u56e0\u5b50\u306b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u308b\u3002<br \/>\n\u7537\u6027\u30fb\u5973\u6027\u53cc\u65b9\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u3001\u5e74\u9f62\u3001BMI\u3001\u55ab\u7159\u72b6\u6cc1\u3001\u9759\u8108\u7624\u3001\u3046\u3063\u8840\u6027\u5fc3\u4e0d\u5168\u3001\u6162\u6027\u814e\u75c7\u3001COPD\u3001\u708e\u75c7\u6027\u8178\u75be\u60a3\u3001\u904e\u53bb6\u30ab\u6708\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u5165\u9662\u6b74\u3001\u6297\u7cbe\u795e\u75c5\u85ac\u306e\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u51e6\u65b9\u6b74\u2028<br \/>\n\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u3089\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u4ee5\u4e0b\u304c\u542b\u3081\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3002<br \/>\n\u5973\u6027\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u7d4c\u53e3\u907f\u598a\u85ac\u3001\u30bf\u30e2\u30ad\u30b7\u30d5\u30a7\u30f3\u3001\u30db\u30eb\u30e2\u30f3\u88dc\u5145\u7642\u6cd5\u2028\u00a0\u00a0 \uff08\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u9805\u76ee\u306f\u6709\u610f\u5dee\u306a\u3057\uff09\u2028<br \/>\n\u5fc3\u623f\u7d30\u52d5\u3001\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u7cfb\u75be\u60a3\u3001\u5598\u606f\u3001\u9759\u8108\u8840\u6813\u585e\u6813\u75c7\u306e\u5bb6\u65cf\u6b74<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u826f\u304f\u8f03\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u3002\uff08well calibrated\uff09\u3000\u21d2\u3000Table3\u2028<br \/>\n5\u5e74\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u2028<br \/>\nR2 statistic\uff1a\u5973\u6027\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u306f33%\u3001\u7537\u6027\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u306f34%\u2028<br \/>\nD statistic\uff1a\u5973\u6027\u3067\u306f1.43\u3001\u7537\u6027\u3067\u306f1.45\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002<br \/>\nROC statistic\uff1a\u4e21\u6027\u5225\u30670.75\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u2028\u2028<\/p>\n<p>\uff1cConclusions\uff1e\u2028<br \/>\n1\u5e74\u30685\u5e74\u306e\u6642\u70b9\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u8840\u6813\u75c7\u306e\u5bc4\u4e0e\u5371\u967a\u5ea6\u3092\u5b9a\u91cf\u5316\u3059\u308b\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u958b\u767a\u3057\u3001\u59a5\u5f53\u6027\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\u305f\u3002\u9759\u8108\u8840\u6813\u585e\u6813\u75c7\u3092\u4e88\u9632\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u305f\u3081\u306b\u30cf\u30a4\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u60a3\u8005\u3092\u540c\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u3002\u3053\u306e\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0\u306f\u60a3\u8005\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u77e5\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3001\u3082\u3057\u304f\u306f\u30ab\u30eb\u30c6\u306b\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306b\u8a18\u8f09\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5358\u7d14\u306a\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e0a\u306e\u5909\u6570\u304b\u3089\u6210\u308a\u7acb\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u81e8\u5e8a\u4e0a\u306e\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u30b3\u30f3\u30d4\u30e5\u30fc\u30bf\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u3068\u7d71\u5408\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u3001\u5165\u9662\u3001\u3082\u3057\u304f\u306f\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u4e0a\u6607\u3055\u305b\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6cbb\u7642\u3092\u958b\u59cb\u3059\u308b\u524d\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u8a55\u4fa1\u306b\u7528\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u2028\u2028QThrombosisR risk calculator\u2028<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.qthrombosis.org\/index.php\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/www.qthrombosis.org\/index.php\u2028\u2028<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u3010\u958b\u50ac\u65e5\u3011<br \/>\n\u20282011\u5e749\u67087\u65e5<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3010\u6587\u732e\u540d\u3011\u2028 Julia Hippisley-Cox.Development and validation of risk prediction algorithm (QThrombosis) to estimate f &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/?p=543\" class=\"more-link\">\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080 <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u3053\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u306f\u5c06\u6765\u9759\u8108\u8840\u6813\u585e\u6813\u75c7\u3092\u767a\u75c7\u3059\u308b\u304b\uff1f<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-17"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=543"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":544,"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543\/revisions\/544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hcfm.jp\/journal\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}